It's About Coalitions Not Purity, Part Twenty-Seven

"The Government Shuts Down and Clinton Runs Again"

Republicans were able to bring back elements of the Reagan coalition to overwhelm Democrats in the 1994 election, as many Americans were upset with congressional scandals, trade agreements, and the National Rifle Association implied that Democrats (with some exceptions) would take guns away from law-abiding citizens, thus mobilizing some of the anti-government sentiment so cultivated by conservatives during Reagan's time. Republican strategists, led by Congressman Newt Gingrich of Georgia, put out a a list of issues called "The Contract With America," which featured proposals that polled well with Americans, like making congressional representatives live by the same laws passed by Congress. The GOP also had specific measures they said they would introduce if given the majority, like welfare reform. The election was a Republican congressional landslide, as the GOP was voted into the majority in both houses of Congress.

The new GOP majorities took office in early 1995, but by late 1995, the Republicans and President Clinton were on a showdown course over the 1996 federal budget. Republicans were able to get measures through both houses, but the President vetoed the bill, as it essentially contained too many cuts he did not favor. Both sides agreed in principle to balancing the budget, but it was the means of doing that that brought confrontation, as Republicans wanted changes in Medicare and Social Security.* After negotiations between the two sides failed to produce a deal, a part of the government shut down, which ended a few days later due to a temporary agreement to extend government funding as negotiations continued. When these negotiations too failed, the government shutdown, part two, went into effect. This shutdown lasted about three weeks, with parts of the economy and the public feeling the affects. Then Speaker Gingrich announced that part of the reason he had let the government shut down was because President Clinton had made him sit in the back of the plane during a trip to Israel. Democrats pounced and the story took on a life of its own, as Gingrich was indicated to be a cry baby who threw a tantrum, which costs millions of Americans money and inconvenienced millions more. Eventually the Republicans and Clinton came to an agreement similar to one proposed weeks before, prior to the painful shutdown.

The Republican Senate leader was Senator Bob Dole of Kansas, who was a top tier candidate for the GOP presidential nomination in 1996. Arch conservative commentator Pat Buchanan entered the fray as he had in 1992. After a stunning victory by Buchanan in New Hampshire, Republican strategists pushed for endorsements and money for the campaign of Dole, who was able to defeat Buchanan in several key primaries, thus ensuring his nomination. Dole chose Jack Kemp to be his running mate. While not especially close with Gingrich, once nominated, Democrats made sure people believed Dole and Gingrich were best friends. If I remember correctly, Dole later joked that Democratic ads made he and Gingrich sound like they were one and the same person, as the ads continually mentioned "Dole/Gingrich" in one breath. Dole's age was something of an issue (he was in his early 70s), especially when contrasted with the middle age Clinton (who was 50). Ross Perot also entered as a third party candidate, but there was no surge for Perot this time, at least not on the order of 1992.

The economy had picked up, and Republicans were left saying they could do even better, which often tends to be a losing argument, and it was in 1996 too. By election day Clinton won easily with just over 49% of the vote, but with 379 electoral votes; while Dole garnered less than 41% of the vote and 159 electoral votes. Perot received more than 8% of the vote, and no electoral votes. Again Clinton carried several southern states, depriving Republicans of their stranglehold on the region. So the Democrats had a two term president, but he failed to receive at least 50% of the vote either time. Still, was this the beginning of a more firm Democratic coalition? After all, Clinton may not have gotten 50% in either election, but Republicans didn't even get 40% the first time, and just over that amount in 1996. Perot's candidacy, especially in 1992, certainly had an impact, probably to the negative side for Republicans.

* I've mentioned in other articles here over the years that my father was a staunch Republican who had had something of a fixation with Social Security (and Medicare somewhat), as many Republicans had and still do have. After my father retired though, he saw things differently, and he was angry that Republicans would go after Social Security, saying that privatization plans by the GOP catered to greedy business people who "couldn't wait to get their hands on that (Social Security) money."  

WORD HISTORY:
Sail-It appears that "sail" goes back to Indo European "sek," which had the idea "to cut." This gave its Old Germanic offspring "seglom/seglam," with the meaning "a piece of cut cloth used to propel a ship or boat;  a sail," apparently a meaning developed only in Germanic, but borrowed by some Celtic dialects. This then gave Old English (Anglo-Saxon) "segel/segl," meaning a "sail." The "g" sound eventually disappeared as a separate sound, blending with a long "e" sound to produce a long "a" sound, a process that happened similarly with other English words once having a "g" sound (the "g" also disappeared in some other Germanic languages, see below), like "rain," which once was "regn" (standard German still retains the "g" as "Regen," but when you hear some German speakers pronounce it, the "g" is barely audible, and I wouldn't be surprised if, like in English, the "g" is no longer present in some German dialects); "say" was "secgan" (standard German still has "sagen, although again, not always audible);  and "day" was once "daeg" (German has "Tag," with the ending "g" pronounced as "k" [the "a" is pronounced like the "a" in father, but when used for "daily," German too uses a long "a" sound in the related "täglich]). Old English also had the verb form "seglan/seglian." Common in the other Germanic languages: German has "Segel," Low German Saxon has "Sail" and "Segel," Dutch has "zeil," West Frisian and Norwegian have "seil," Danish has "sejl," Icelandic has "segl," and Swedish has "segel." These are all noun forms, but there are verb forms too.